2009년 11월 18일, 수요일
 
국제금융시장에 대한 정리부분입니다.
 
S&P 500의 historical chart와 이후의 움직임에 대한 예상과 결과를 예측할수 있는 내용들을 정리하였습니다.
 
한가지 하단에 보이는 ARM에 관련이 된 기사내용은 기술적으로 과학적인 증빙이 되지 아니하는 내용입니다.
 
Intel vs ARM사에 대한 비교우위를 논한다는 내용 자체가 일종의 국제 금융시장 사기행각인 것입니다.
 
일본의 technology기업들의 행보가 금일의 핵심입니다만, 일본의 금융시장에 관련이 된 행보를 월가의 행보와 동일시한다면, 이제 국제금융시장에서 출구전략이라는 용어를 사용하는 정치인들의 무식이 드러나는 경우에 해당이 되기에, 국가별 정치지도자들의 수준을 비교할수 있으며, 대한민국의 이명박 정권이 행하고 있는 출구전략이라는 용어 사용이 얼마나 무식한 것인가를 드러내는 증명부분이기도 합니다.
 
프로세서에 관련이 된 내용을 첨부합니다만, 그 내용을 통하여 국제금융시장에 봄의 기운이 이미 도래, 이제 투자자들의 미래수익을 낙관할수 있는 상황임도 증명이 됩니다.
 
S&P 500의 chart를 분석하는 방편에 있어서 component에 주목을 하여서는 수익이 날수가 없습니다.
 
Component보다는 향후 수익을 예상할수 있는 종목에 투자를 행하여야 하며, 그 대표적인 사례가 바로 대한민국의 삼성전자, 하이닉스 LG전자등에 관련이 된 technology기업들입니다.
 
이미 해당기업들의 주가는 펀더멘탈상으로 고평가 되어있기에, 미래수익을 창출할수가 없는 경우에 해당이 된다는 이야기입니다.
 
미래수익을 창출할수 있는 component들에 주목을 하여야 한다는 결론입니다.
 
가장 좋은 사례가 바로 지난 2-3년간 저평가된 종목들에 투자를 하여야 한다는 이야기이기도 합니다.
 
고평가 되지 아니한 종목과 지배주주, 자본가들에 대한 평가를 병행하여서 투자를 가져가면 수익을 창출할수가 있는 하나의 예를 가져간 경우입니다.
 
 

 

TOP INSTITUTIONAL HOLDERS Holder Shares % Out Value* Reported FRANKLIN RESOURCES, INC 17,011,120 6.34 $50,352,915 30-Jun-09 Barclays Global Investors UK Holdings Ltd 15,317,570 5.71 $45,340,007 30-Jun-09 PRIMECAP MANAGEMENT COMPANY 13,240,416 4.94 $39,191,631 30-Jun-09 LMM, LLC 12,689,200 4.73 $37,560,032 30-Jun-09 VANGUARD GROUP, INC. (THE) 12,015,532 4.48 $35,565,974 30-Jun-09 STATE STREET CORPORATION 10,373,170 3.87 $30,704,583 30-Jun-09 CASCADE INVESTMENT LLC 7,950,000 2.96 $30,210,000 31-Mar-09 GATES (BILL & MELINDA) FOUNDATION 6,050,000 2.26 $17,908,000 30-Jun-09 PRIVATE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, INC. 5,873,974 2.19 $17,386,963 30-Jun-09 Legg Mason Capital Management, Inc. 36,805,921 13.72 $108,945,526 30-Jun-09 TOP MUTUAL FUND HOLDERS Holder Shares % Out Value* Reported LEGG MASON VALUE TRUST 18,300,900 6.82 $54,170,664 30-Jun-09 LEGG MASON OPPORTUNITY TRUST FUND 12,489,200 4.66 $36,968,032 30-Jun-09 VANGUARD/PRIMECAP FUND 9,000,000 3.36 $26,640,000 30-Jun-09 FRANKLIN MUTUAL SER FD-MUTUAL SHARES FD 8,494,150 3.17 $25,142,684 30-Jun-09 FIDELITY VALUE FUND 4,555,000 1.70 $24,232,600 31-Aug-09 FRANKLIN MUTUAL SER FD-MUTUAL BEACON FD 4,062,175 1.51 $12,024,038 30-Jun-09 FRANKLIN TEMP INV FDS-FRANKLIN MUTUAL BEACON FD 4,062,175 1.51 $12,024,038 30-Jun-09 ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FD 3,941,846 1.47 $18,842,023 30-Sep-09 VANGUARD MID-CAP INDEX FUND 2,817,250 1.05 $8,339,060 30-Jun-09 SPDR TRUST SERIES 1 2,601,832 .97 $40,016,176 30-Sep-08

 
 
 
 
 
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By The Associated Press
WASHINGTON - Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said Tuesday the global economy is moving toward a recovery but countries can't rely on U.S. consumers to serve as the engine of worldwide growth.
In testimony prepared for the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Geithner said that significant co-operation among the world's 20 major economies had helped countries to "put out the financial fire" and restart economic growth.
"To establish a more global foundation for growth and avert future crises of this nature, we must rebalance global demand," Geithner said.
Countries with large trade surpluses such as China will have to foster policies to support domestic growth, while countries with large trade and budget deficits will need to boost savings, he said.
The personal savings rate already has risen significantly in the U.S. during the current crisis and as the economy achieves sustainable growth, the Obama administration will begin working to reduce the federal government's soaring budget deficits, Geithner said.
"Emerging markets and economies with large and sustained surpluses will need to shift their growth towards domestic demand and reduce their reliance on exports," he said. "Governments around the world will need to accept this basic reality or we will all face slower growth."
 
3.
By The Associated Press
NEW YORK - Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said Tuesday it is teaming with billionaire investor Warren Buffett to invest US$500 million to provide thousands of small business owners across America with college scholarships and boost their access to capital.
Goldman's philanthropic effort, called "10,000 Small Businesses," includes a $200-million contribution to community colleges, universities and other institutions to give grants to small business owners to further their education.
The New York-based bank also will invest $300 million through a combination of lending and charitable support. Goldman said the money will be funnelled through community development financial institutions to boost lending and technical assistance available to small businesses in underserved communities.
In addition, Goldman Sachs executives, in partnership with national and local business organizations, will aid small businesses with advice, technical assistance and professional networking opportunities.
An advisory council co-chaired by Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein will oversee the initiative. Legendary investor and Goldman's largest shareholder, Warren Buffett, and Harvard Business School Professor Michael Porter will serve as co-chairs as well.
"Our recovery is dependent on hard working small business owners across America who will create the jobs that America needs," Buffett said in a statement. "I'm proud to be a part of this innovative program which provides greater access to know-how and capital - two ingredients critical to success."
The initiative comes as Goldman has started to see a rebound across many of its businesses even as the broader economy and consumers continue to struggle with rising unemployment and mounting loan losses. The bank, which has outperformed other financial companies for years, has been the strongest in its industry throughout the financial crisis. It had less exposure to toxic mortgage-backed securities than other companies and also has been more aggressive in its trading.
Its continued strength throughout the downturn allowed Goldman to quickly repay the $10 billion government bailout it received at the height of the credit crisis. That repayment was also done, in part, to rid the bank of restrictions on annual compensation that were attached to the loan. Goldman has been criticized for setting aside billions for employee paycheques despite the continuing weak economy.
10,000 Small Businesses, which has been in development for nearly a year, is a five-year program modeled on the Goldman Sachs 10,000 Women initiative, which creates partnerships between academic institutions and non-profits to provide business and management education to women around the world.
Other Council members include George Boggs, president and CEO of the American Association of Community Colleges, Glenn Hubbard, dean of Columbia Business School and Marc H. Morial, president and CEO of the National Urban League, among others.
The first community college to participate will be LaGuardia Community College in New York City's Queens borough, which houses a Small Business Development Centre. The first community development financial institution to receive financing from Goldman Sachs will be New York-based Seedco Financial Services Inc.
 
4.

NEC expands infotainment SoC family

Christoph Hammerschmidt

(11/17/2009 11:16 AM EST)

URL: http://www.eetimes.eu/consumer/221800349

Two new iterations extend NEC Electronics' NaviEngine chip family towards the low end. The devices contain multicore processors along with the peripherals and interfaces necessary to be used in car infotainment systems, in particular for navigation and telematics systems.

MUNICH, Germany — Two new iterations extend NEC Electronics' NaviEngine chip family towards the low end. The devices contain multicore processors along with the peripherals and interfaces necessary to be used in car infotainment systems, in particular for navigation and telematics systems. After NEC in 2007 had launched the four-core EG-4270 NaviEngine, the company now extends the product family with the three-core EC-4260 and the dual-core EC-4250. These two devices are the first implementations of NECs EMMA architecture. The processors used in the SoCs are ARM-11 cores; the three-core type delivers 1440 MIPS of computing power while the two-core implementation still offers 960 MIPS, according to NECs own figures. In comparison to the EG-4270, the two newcomers shine with low power consumption, the vendor claims. The processors support symmetric multiprocessing which means that the operating systems runs on both cores and assigns tasks dynamically at runtime. For this reason, the devices can make the best use of hardware resources available, NEC explains. In order to run 2D/3D graphic applications, the SoCs contain a GPU unit, and both support the OpenVG specs. While the three-core EC-4260 however also supports OpenGL ES, the EC-4250 with its two cores offers 2D hardware acceleration. For automotive-specific communications processes, the software environment that available for the devices supports a number of relevant communication protocols, including USB, MOST, CAN, I2S and I2C. Also available are evaluation boards, in-circuit emulators, on-chip debugger, middleware and operating systems. Samples are available now; NEC expects the volume production to ramp up in 2010. By 2012, the company expects production volumes of 100.000 units per month.

 
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IBM biochip allows fast diagnosis of many diseases

Christoph Hammerschmidt

(11/17/2009 2:01 AM EST)

URL: http://www.eetimes.eu/semi/221800157

In its Zurich research laboratory, IBM has built what it calls a point-of-care diagnostic test device based on a silicon chip. One chip detects up to 16 pathogens — and it does so faster and requiring less material than conventional labs-on-a-chip.

MUNICH, Germany — In its Zurich research laboratory, IBM has built a point-of-care diagnostic test device based on a silicon chip. One chip detects up to 16 pathogens — and it does so faster and requiring less material than conventional labs-on-a-chip. The device uses capillary forces to ingest the sample material which could be a patient's blood or a serum, explained IBM researcher Luc Gervais in an interview with EE Times. In order to manufacture the lab-on-a chip, the researchers used much the same lithography, etching and other manufacturing process steps as they do for semiconductor production, Gervais explained. The basis material is silicon, passivated by an oxide layer. On top of this, a polymer layer is used to affix the proteins used as indicators. In comparison with available biochips, IBM claims its achievement needs much less sample liquid — only 7 picoliter —, and it provides its results in less than a minute. This makes it ideal for emergency use, IBM says — in particular in cases where a patient's health condition can occur or worsen rapidly and thus physicians need a fast diagnosis. An example is cardiovascular disease, still one of the most frequent causes of death. Depending on which indicator antibody proteins are used, the device however can detect a very broad range of bacterial and viral infections as well as cancer markers or the so-called swine influenza. It also can be used to test for chemical and biohazards, the company says. For the readout, a sensor is used that resembles the CMOS or CCD devices used in digital cameras. However, in order to enable one-time-use and at the same time keep the price for the device low, biochip and sensor are not integrated. Instead, the sensor is part of a separate readout device. For the commercialization of the biochip, IBM collaborates with a company named Coris BioConcept (Gembloux, Belgium), Gervais said.

 
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Japan's DoCoMo tries to simplify handsets with RF MEMS

R. Colin Johnson

(11/13/2009 11:19 AM EST)

URL: http://www.eetimes.eu/comms/221800044

MEMS technology is critical to the success of future of wireless handsets, according to an executive with the wireless subsidiary of Japanese carrier NTT.

PORTLAND, Ore. — MEMS technology is critical to the success of future of wireless handsets, according to an executive with the wireless subsidiary of Japanese carrier NTT. DoCoMo's Shoichi Narahashi In a presentation during the MEMS Executive Congress (Sonoma, Calif.), Shoichi Narahashi, an executive with DoCoMo Research Laboratories, made the case for using MEMS RF switches to simplify the bill-of-materials for future mobile handsets. Narahashi said a single, reconfigurable power amplifier chip could replace the four separate amplifier chips required today. "Reconfigurable [power amplifiers] using MEMS RF switches have the potential to perform just as well as multiple PAs, but at a fraction of the cost and in a more compact form factor," said Narahashi. DoCoMo showed its prototype design for a quad-band mobile handset that uses two sets of MEMS RF switches: one set to reconfigure a power amplifier to transmit at one of four different frequencies and another that switched in different filters to reconfigure the RF front-end to receive at one of four different frequencies. Design strengths and weakness were described by Narahashi, but he did not reveal DoCoMo's MEMS supplier, if any. Nevertheless, "this was the first formal interaction NTT DoCoMo has had with the MEMS industry," said Karen Lightman, managing director of the MEMS Industry Group. Narahashi claimed DoCoMo's prototype proved the concept, but it is up to MEMS vendors to demonstrate that low-cost RF switches can be fabricated with sufficient power-handling capability. Durability is also needed at a level that matches that provided by multiple amplifiers, he added.

 
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ARM success could trigger takeover bid, says analyst

Peter Clarke

(10/12/2009 9:34 AM EDT)

URL: http://www.eetimes.eu/semi/220600263

Processor intellectual property licensor ARM Holdings plc (Cambridge, England) is set to outperform Intel in the netbook and smartbook markets over the next two and three years, but that prospect of success could trigger a takeover bid for the company, according to Didier Scemama, semiconductor analyst with ABN AMRO Bank NV.

LONDON — Processor intellectual property licensor ARM Holdings plc (Cambridge, England) is set to outperform Intel in the netbook and smartbook markets over the next two and three years, but that prospect of success could trigger a takeover bid for the company, according to Didier Scemama, semiconductor analyst with ABN AMRO Bank NV. Scemama has predicted that ARM might be taken into ownership by its semiconductor and equipment licensees, or at least a blocking holding be taken, to prevent ARM falling into the hands of a single private-equity or industry company. Alternatively, ARM could be placed under the control of a non-profit foundation, in a similar manner to the way in which Symbian and its mobile phone operating system was controlled prior to its acquisition by Nokia. The driving force behind such a change in ARM ownership is a shift towards computing based on ARM-Linux and away from Intel-Microsoft over the next technology cycle, according to Scemama. "First, we believe ARM processors will match Intel's performance while beating them on power consumption and possibly cost. Second, we expect PC manufacturers to switch from Intel/Microsoft OS-based platforms to ARM/Chrome OS-based platforms beginning in 2H10 to reduce their dependence on Intel and improve margins," said Scemama in a note to clients. As that momentum gathers pace Scemama believes Micrsoft will be forced to declare its support for high-level Windows operating systems running on ARM processors. "Third, with ARM-based PCs gaining traction with consumers, we believe ARM could receive support from Microsoft and port Windows to the ARM architecture. We estimate ARM could capture 30 percent of the notebook PC processor market by 2014, creating a major disruption to the Intel-Microsoft domination of the PC market," Scemama said. The analyst is not the first to predict success for ARM in the netbook/smartbook market. But he has taken the analysis deeper and reckons that the free availability of ARM stock could make the company vulnerable to a takeover bid. Long before ARM enjoys the financial benefits of increased significance in the netbook, notebook and personal computer markets, its stock price could start to rise making it an acquisition target. But at the same time the strategic nature of ARM's position in the ecosystem it has created could make its independence important to such companies as Qualcomm, Broadcom, Apple, Nokia, Google and TSMC, said Scemama. "A takeover is quite likely. But not by Intel," Scemama told EE Times. "I think it will be a consortium of the chip companies and electronics OEMs that have a strategic interest in ARM," he added. One reason for ARM's vulnerability is that its stock is 100 percent available through its listings on the London Stock Exchange and Nasdaq, Scemama said. "Companies like Apple, Nokia, Google, IBM, TSMC; they are needing ARM to be independent. They could make a pre-emptive move." In his note Scemama examines the costs of a number of different approaches to the privatization of ARM. For example, the cash-generative nature of ARM's IP licensing business would makes the company attractive for a leverage buyout (LBO) by a private equity company or consortium. Such a group could borrow the $3 billion or so needed to buy ARM and then load the company with the debt, which its cash generation should, in theory, be able to service. But such an outcome might not appeal to the licensees of ARM technology. "With [ARM having] a 1.9 billion euro market capitalization [about $2.8 billion] this would require these ten companies to contribute 190 million euro [about $280 million] or less each. Although a large sum, we believe that many large OEMs, foundries and chipmakers would rather pay that amount than see ARM in the wrong hands," Scemama wrote. Some things stand in the way of such an acquisition; one being the long-term semiconductor industry trend towards disaggregation. This disaggregation is one reason for ARM's existence as a chipless chip company. The second is that the Symbian foundation model as a means of keeping Intel and Microsoft out of the mobile phone industry has largely run out of steam. The appetite for such protective measures would seem less today than it did in the 1990s, when Symbian rose to prominence. "I am not talking about re-aggregation, but about protecting a strategic asset," Scemama told EE Times. "Either you take the company private or a consortium could take a 30 or 40 percent stake as a blocking move." As to the Symbian precedent, Scemama argued that the smartphone operating system was never a large enough part of the overall mobile phone landscape to capture the interest of all the mobile phone handset makers. The primary interest in Symbian had always come from Nokia. In contrast ARM is of strategic interest to scores of companies, Scemama said.

8.

Freescale secures design win with Alcatel-Lucent

Anne-Francoise Pele

(09/07/2009 12:00 AM EDT)

URL: http://www.eetimes.eu/products/dsp/219501493

Almost a year has passed since Freescale Semiconductor Inc. unveiled its six-core DSP chip, but not much has been seen about design wins for it. The wait is over. Freescale has achieved a design win with Alcatel-Lucent.

PARIS — Almost a year has passed since Freescale Semiconductor Inc. unveiled its six-core DSP chip, but not much has been seen about design wins for it. The wait is over. Freescale said it has achieved a design win with Alcatel-Lucent and expects to make similar announcements soon. As part of a collaboration program initiated in June, Alcatel-Lucent (Paris, France) said it has selected Freescale’s QorIQ P4080 processor and MSC8156 DSP as the foundation for a platform targeting highly flexible wireless basestations designed to meet current and future requirements of the world’s leading wireless carriers. In an interview with EE Times Europe, Lisa T. Su, Ph. D., senior vice president and general manager, networking and multimedia & chief technology officer, explained: "This is for their next generation basestations for wireless infrastructure, and looking at really taking the platforms to the next level. I think that the trend that we are seeing today in the industry is that all key infrastructure providers are really looking for building systems that allow you to do multiple standards in the same hardware because there is a lot more efficiency for them and a lot more efficiency for the operators. We have done some work on their system requirements to enable that to happen." As indicated on the group's website, Alcatel-Lucent has been conducting LTE market research in Europe, Japan and North America. The Alcatel-Lucent research, which began in November 2008, suggests that receptivity to LTE services is strong with a willingness to pay. Benefits to consumers and enterprises in the form of faster communication, increased productivity, innovative services and flexibility will be a key to adoption. Alcatel-Lucent also referred to Pyramid Research, based in Cambridge, Massachusetts, whose findings indicate that global uptake of LTE will be faster than any previous mobile standard. LTE subscriptions will reach 136 million by 2014. Subscriptions in the early stage will come from developed markets, such as Japan and the U.S., but China will lead in emerging markets, which will grow 30 percent faster than developed ones. Additionally, Pyramid Research said it expects new players in emerging markets to leapfrog 3G and move directly to deploy LTE. Freescale indicated that its six-core DSP chip, the MSC8156, uses the StarCore SC3850 DSP core technology that is designed to dramatically improve the capabilities of wireless broadband base station equipment, including LTE. The MSC8156 is made in a 45nm process and is available in two speed grades, 800 MHz and 1 GHz. Freescale claims that the onboard Multi-Accelerator Platform Engine technology for baseband, called MAPLE-B, works in concert with the six fully programmable DSP cores to support the 3G-LTE, TDD-LTE, TD-SCDMA and WiMAX standards, as well as the symbol rate functionality of HSPA and HSPA+. Su commented: "The key of our solution is not just the number of cores that we have. It is also the special IP that we put on the chip related to running the basestations. That is something that is very much at the forefront." Freescale claimed it aims to contribute to the development of unified common platforms – programmable solutions for wireless base stations that allow service providers to deploy one technology today and later upgrade to more advanced standards such as LTE or WiMAX with a simple software installation. "This is part of the strategy of Alcatel-Lucent, being able to deploy one technology and just be able to upgrade with software. This is the wave of the future. When we talk about the simplicity of it, it means that it is very scalable for different standards. We spent a lot of time with them optimizing their code base," noted Su. As for cost advantages, Su specified: "There is a 30-percent advantage over what you might see from over competitors in that space. There are significant numbers related to cost and performance advantages." She concluded: "We announced the multicore DSP last year in November. We have started sampling in January, and we have seen incredibly positive reception in the marketplace. We put substantial special IP on the chip for LTE, and what we have seen in the last six to eight months that we have been sampling tremendous customer attractions. We have other design engagements and we have substantial wins at many OEMs. We can expect similar announcements soon."

 
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